Are We Overproducing AI Tokens?
sebastianbarros.substack.com
April 10, 2026, 10:45 a.m.
Every infrastructure wave starts the same way. Railroads, electricity, fiber, mobile. Massive capital, aggressive build, everyone racing to lay the foundation before demand fully exists. AI is following the same pattern, but at a different order of magnitude. One-gigawatt data centers are being deployed at the scale of small cities. Hundreds of billions are flowing into compute, models, and energy. Telcos are now looking at the last mile of this system, positioning themselves as distributors of intelligence, not just connectivity. But what happens if supply runs ahead of demand?Inference costs are already collapsing. Token prices are compressing before the market has fully formed. Enterprise adoption is real, and consumer usage is exploding, but the slope of demand remains uncertain relative to the scale of supply coming online. Telcos face a narrow window: Enter too late, and the value is gone. Enter too early, and they risk building into oversupply. The only way through is to understand whether this is the next infrastructure boom or the next overbuild cycle.