Mobile Money Hit $2 Trillion. Telcos Capture 1%.
sebastianbarros.substack.com
March 25, 2026, 2:30 p.m.
Mobile money has crossed $2 trillion in annual transaction value, scaling faster than telecom itself and reaching hundreds of millions of active users worldwide. This did not happen by chance. Telcos built the foundation. SIM-based identity, nationwide agent networks, airtime distribution, and trust at the last mile made services like M-Pesa possible. In many markets, mobile money did not ride on top of telecom infrastructure. It was telecom infrastructure. Few industries have created something this large, this fast, and this embedded into everyday economic life.But the economics tell a different story. Against more than $2 trillion in flows, telcos capture only $10 to $25 billion in revenue globally, roughly around 1% of the value moving through the system. That is not a failure of execution. It is how the market evolved. Telcos built the rail and optimized it for access, scale, and inclusion. The higher value layers, merchant payments, credit, savings, and financial services, expanded around that rail, often outside of it. The result is a quiet paradox. Telcos created one of the largest financial systems in the world, yet capture only a thin edge of its value.